After the
unexpected win of Donald Trump in United States, the elections scheduled in
different European countries are getting more attention, as the growing socio-economic
crisis has provided fresh wind to the extreme right wing parties and has
multiplied their desire to attain the centre of power. However, in recently
concluded Netherlands election, the extreme right party could not achieve the estimated
pre-poll success. But it will keep its presence felt in the National
Parliament. The situation in France is
particularly confusing where the anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiments are
on rise, and in the same time, one can witness a number of conflicting issues
taking the front seat of the election campaign notably a striking division
between rich and poor, resulting into gradual decrease of purchasing capacity
of common people and diminution of public service system, and on the other
hand, Brexit has instilled the idea in people’s mind that the European Union
and Globalisation are failing. The sentiment of Nation State and protection of
its boundary is growing day-by-day.
This
presidential election is unprecedented in its nature for different reasons. For
the first time in the fifth Republic of France that an incumbent president is
not seeking re-election at the end his first term in the office. In 2012, the
French electorate had awarded a significant victory to the Socialist Party
candidate Francois Holland, being fade-up with 5 years of Bling-Bling
presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy. Francois
Holland promised to undertake a large number of economic and social reforms,
such as improvement of public service system by increasing recruitment in
education and health sectors, therefore not to follow the German policy of
austerity to get hold on budget deficit. Therefore, he proposed taxing rich up
to 75% of their revenue, increasing tax on heritage, and slashing down
bureaucratic expenses to fill the State coffer finally to balance the budgetary
discrepancies. He also guarantied to put end of job cuts in private sector and
obscene practice of handing out golden parachute to the top management bosses.
But, from
the beginning, things didn’t happen as it should be. Holland’s declaration of
taxing rich sent a red signal among that particular class, many left the
country. But very soon, it became clear that Holland is no Hugo Chavez, his
words on taxing rich was not even rhetoric, rather impulsive. The government
proposed a package of 41 billions euros to the syndicate of corporate bosses
under the pact of mutual accountability to create 200 000 employments. They took the
money, but the jobs were not created. Big companies continued shutting down
plants to shift their productions in foreign locations. Finally, the present
administration succumbed more to the pressure of corporate to withdraw the
social protection of employees to make them more vulnerable and exposed to
exploitation.
And number
of international issues like Arab Spring, civil war in Libya, Syria and Iraq
and old French colonies in Africa brought a constant flow of refugees adding
additional pressure on public service and infrastructure.
And the
increasing number of attacks perpetrated by home-grown and foreign Islamist
terrorists have also unveiled the problem of integration of youngest generation
of migrant families originated from old French colonies predominantly Muslims
in the French society. Deepening mistrust is furthermore fracturing the country
on a religious line taking into account that France contains the largest number
of Muslims in Europe, nearly 7.5% of its over all population of 65 millions.
Therefore,
Francois Holland is such a low public approval rate, below 20%, which pushed
him to abandon his bid for a second term.
Thus, the
present presidential election becomes very symbolic in a sense that for the
first time in the electoral history of the fifth French Republic since its
inception on 4th October 1958, there is no one either to protect
or to challenge the outcome of last five years presidential rule.
11 candidates, 4 neck and neck in the first
round of election on 23rd April, and the first two contenders remain
in the battle on 7th May
The leit-motif
of this year’s election can be summarised in two words - “anti-system” and
“alternative”. None of the candidates seems ready to accept his or her part of
the responsibility in the crisis of present socio-economic and political
system. Everybody blames the existing system. Then who created it?
The media is
playing its part in the game. In the last week of January 2017, an alternative
weekly journal, “Le Canard Enchaîné” exposed the corruption of the potential
future president, Francois Fillon, the candidate of the Republican Party who
served as the prime minister of 5 years presidential rule of Nicolas
Sarkozy. Surprisingly enough, in his 36
years of political carrier, Fillon had never been accused of corruption, and
known as an honest politician, and won the Republican primary election drawing
on his clean image (over Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppe, both have judicial
history). Since the multiple exposures of fictitious employment of his wife
Penelope as his parliamentary assistant during long years in exchange of
sumptuous salary amounting close to one million euros, the story provoked
public outcry et tool a popular name “Penelope Gate”. Another alternation
online news magazine “Mediapart” disclosed more information on Fillon’s
misdeed, irregular employments to his son et daughter paying very high salary,
the showy role of his legal council firm in international power allies and his
practice of accepting gifts from interest groups. These accusations have dented
the image of Francois Fillon significantly who is a stanch promoter of
austerity and public service cuts, who plans to abolish 500000 public service
posts and encourage the privatisation of the system to embolden the French
economy. In fact, Fillon was getting
enough support from the mainstream French voters as the process of
“Uberisation” of the French economy is already started by tempting the young
generation to work independently.
But Fillon
continued to reject all accusations denouncing “political vendetta” of the
sitting president Holland and his cabinet, citing that they are trying to pave
the road of victory of Emmanuel Macron, ex deputy consultant of Francois
Holland who became the finance minister in the 2nd government under
his presidency, who resigned from the government in August 2016, to start his
own political movement “ En Marche (Moving On)”, who also served as an
investment banker-director in Rothschild Bank in the past, a young man of 39
years. With no political experience so far, and a political organisation
founded only a year back, he championed the politics of neither left nor right
not even centrist, which has seduced an important section of political class and
of the population, and he topped the first round of election with almost 24% of
the vote over 22% received by the candidate of National Front, Marine Le Pen,
the extreme right party. Her party’s manifesto is all about protectionism:
anti-Europe, anti-immigration, anti-Muslim, and to make France great again by
restoration of national border and Judeo-Christian belief where abortion and
homosexual marriage will be illegal. The party has garnered considerable
support among the rural and working class population who are the primary victim
of poverty after the globalisation of economy.
The National Front is founded by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, a
colonialist and fascist demagogue, who made it to the 2nd round in
presidential election in 2002 upsetting the then Socialist Party candidate. The
party functions as a dynasty, and marred by nepotism and corruption. Same as Fillon,
Marine Le Pen is also facing accusations from European Parliament regarding
fictitious employment to her assistant of the party benefitting from her poste
as a member of EP.
On the
other, the ruling Socialist party is completely fractured within, due to
ideological conflicts between different groups, left leaning and the right
leaning, and the failure of the present government to deliver its electoral
promises. In spite of Benoît Hamon’s
large victory, a left-wing, in the party’s primary over Manuel Valls, a right
leaning politician, who served as Home Minister and then prime minister under
Holland, it was unsuccessful to reunite itself, taken into account that Benoît
Hamon had resigned from his ministerial portfolio in education with few other
minister protesting the nomination of Manuel Valls as the prime minister. Therefore, the rapprochement between these
two groups inside the party organisation sitting on different poles remained
next to impossible. And, finally, before the first round election, Manuel Valls
clearly declared his support for Emmanuel Macron to avoid all possibility of a
second round battle between Fillon and Le Pen, the right and the extreme right,
where one would have to repeat the same scenario of 2002 ending up voting the
lesser evil, finally making Fillon the president. But this declaration of Valls pushed the
Socialist Party towards further disintegration and weakened the candidature of
Hamon who could gather only 6.5% of vote in the 1st round of
election, which is an electoral humiliation of the ruling Socialist Party
itself.
But this
year’s election has reserved more surprise and fractured nature of the French
Society after the meteoric rise of Jean Luc Mélenchon, the candidate of the movement
“La France Insoumise (Unsubmissive France)”, who came fourth in race neck and
neck to dwindling Francois Fillon with 19.6% of popular vote in the first
round.
Certainly,
the Media has played a significant role in it, may be inadvertently. This was
the first time that public et private television channels came forward with the
idea of telecasting direct debate between all the 11 candidates allotting same
amount of time to each of them to present their programmes et vision for the
future of France. Jean Luc Mélenchon,
who is always an outsider through out his political carrier, served as
Minister-Delegate of Vocational Education between 2000 and 2002, under the government of Lionel Jospin, and was part of the left wing of the
Socialist Party until 2008, to found « Parti
de Gauche (Left Party) », at first the president, and then the
co-president of it, until August 2014, and currently un elected member of the European Parliament, has replaced
the traditional Socialist Party single-handedly with his hard-core leftist socio-economic
agendas which is also a growing trend in Europe, specially in its southern
part, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy.
During this
election in particular, the 6 others small candidates received considerable attention
from the media, and. And the social media platforms have also provided them
with the opportunity to express their ideas and intention of presenting
themselves for the top job.
Overpowering sense of indecision and rising
tension dominate the society as the 2nd round approaches
As it is
mentioned earlier that this election is unprecedented in the fifth Republic of
France, none of the two main political parties, Republican and Socialist,
didn’t qualify for the second round.
The French
electors understand it very well that there is a lot at stake in the final
round between two candidates who together gathered only 46% of the vote casted
in the first round. And these two candidates represent two extreme different
interest groups rising from the crisis of capitalist market system, Emmanuel
Macron for Globalisation, i.e., further opening up market to private sector
players minimizing the role of the State in people’s life and a broader Europe,
and Marine Le Pen for Nationalism, a strong State with public services limited
to its citizens, and reestablish State boundary to get hold on immigration.
These two
juxtaposing forces are trying to reach out the majority of the electorate who are
divided into different issues like Economic growth, Economic World War, European Union, French Unity,
France of diversity, Dictatorship of rich, Contempt of class, Revolution,
Opportunist class, Regression of Public service – Job cut, Public credit –
Liberation, Corruption, Religion, Terrorism, Environment.
The
political scene of France has changed a lot from its first nationalist outburst
in 2002, when all political parties got united to vote for the Republican
candidate Jacques Chirac to put back National Front in its place, the final
result was 82% for the Republicans against 18% of National Front. But growing economic crisis has broaden the
space of the nationalist forces to grow more and more into a significant
political force, and all last elections since 2013, municipal and regional, it
topped the first round in half of the electoral circumscriptions (taking into
account that all French elections have two rounds). It has thus became a
routine call for the main political parties to call their electorates to vote
unitedly against the National Front, therefore electing may be undesired
candidates to the majority of the electorate.
But during
the second round of the present presidential election, things are not working
as before, as people are also fed up with the cliché, unity vote against the
National Front, taking into account that Emmanuel Macron is also a very
divisive character on whom the majority of the French population have no faith.
On the other hand, Marine Le Pen has deviated the party quite a lot from its extreme
right and fascist agendas by sidelining her father, to become closer to the
core socio-economic issues confronted by the common French people, thus
bringing out the party from previously social stigmatisation and succeeded
finding political allies. Also increasing law and order problems, terrorist
attacks and mass Muslim migration, have also helped rallying a sizable number
of police, military and administrative employees towards the National Front. Though
according to all opinion polls, Marine Le Pen is still trailing far behind of Emmanuel
Macron, 40 to 60. But her party’s
increasing social acceptance has put questions beyond presidential election
as the Parliament election is scheduled in mid-June. At present, the Front
National has only 2 MPs among 577 seats. The result of presidential election may have longer-term consequences.
Therefore, the
uncertainty reigns, as there is a risk of huge abstention and blank votes,
which can upset all opinion poll calculations.
Everybody is
looking at Jean Luc
Mélenchon. So far he has refused to give any clear instruction to his
electorate to vote for Emmanuel Macron, although citing clearly his opposition
to the National Front. Macron represents the big bank and financial
institutions, which paved the way for the Elites to control more on economic
means thus creating a considerable section of Relative poor in the society.
Both Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen have garnered widespread support of the
aforesaid section. Thus disenchanted
supporters of Mélenchon have very hard choice ahead.
Who will
take charge on 7th May to unite the fractured society?
- Jayanta Chakrabarty
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